Commenting as the Department for Education publishes new projections which estimate that the number of pupils in state-funded schools will plummet by more than 9% by 2031 amid falling birth rates, Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

“Falling school rolls are a real issue in many parts of the country due to declining birth rates. In some areas, including London, the higher cost of living is also forcing families to move to less expensive areas, reducing the pool of prospective pupils.

“Where pupil intake is dwindling, this puts pressure on schools’ finances given that their funding is heavily linked to pupil numbers and their fixed staffing costs do not fall in line with numbers on roll. This can affect their ability to support existing staffing and curriculum breadth, and potentially affect their long-term viability, with small and rural schools especially vulnerable.

“Successive governments have encouraged competition between schools when it comes to pupil admissions. We need an approach to school funding that supports schools experiencing falling rolls and recognises that trends can change over time - protecting existing staffing levels and seizing the opportunity to help schools offer smaller classes and deliver more targeted help for pupils who need it most.”

At its recent annual conference in Belfast, NAHT members supported a motion which called on the union’s national executive to:

• lobby the government to develop a strategic plan for managing falling pupil numbers, including additional specific funding arrangements to provide protection for vulnerable schools

• advocate for workforce planning measures to protect jobs, support redeployment and maintain leadership capacity during periods of structural change

• commission or collate research on the long-term impact of demographic decline on school systems, to inform policy and strengthen the union’s position in negotiations

• campaign for additional resources to support schools facing falling rolls, ensuring that pupils continue to have access to a broad and balanced curriculum, and

• ensure that any decisions regarding school closures or structural changes are subject to meaningful consultation with parents, staff, local communities, trade unions and all other relevant stakeholders with full transparency on the rationale and evidence base for such decisions.