Commenting on new figures showing estimated numbers and projections for pupil rolls, ‘unfilled’ school places, and additional school places - amid falling primary school numbers - Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

“Beneath these headline figures are significant variations between different parts of the country, individual schools and even year groups.

“Many secondary schools are now facing the kind of pressure on places experienced by primaries a few years ago. Even though primary schools in some areas are seeing pupil numbers decline due to factors including falling birth rates and a lack of affordable housing, competition for places in some schools remains high.

“The government has begun to tackle this, restoring local authorities’ power to open new schools where they are most needed, but with funding being based upon pupil numbers the viability of schools facing falling rolls can be threatened.

“By doing more to protect funding for these schools, ministers could help ensure all families have a suitable local school place and even more get their first choice of school. This would also offer scope for smaller class sizes and more support for children who need it, including those with SEND (special educational needs and disabilities).”

The stats show:

• There remains an estimated need for nearly 35,750 additional school places for 2027/28, including 18,520 new primary places and 17,230 new secondary places
• 15% of state-funded schools are at or over capacity
• 13.8% of primary school places were ‘unfilled’ in 2024/25, up from 12.4% in 2023/24. The number of primary school pupils is expected to fall by 0.8% between 2025/26 and 2027/28, up from the 0.6% anticipated last year between 2024/25 and 2026/27 and it is expected there will be 16.4% spare primary places in 2027/28, up from the 14.7% anticipated last year for 2026/27.
• 12.5% of secondary school places were ‘unfilled’ in 2024/25, up from 11.2% in 2023/24. The number of secondary school pupils is expected to increase by 2.1% between 2025/26 and 2027/28, down from the 2.6% anticipated last year between 2024/25 and 2026/27 and it is expected there will be 11.1% spare secondary places in 2027/28, up from the 9.2% anticipated last year for 2026/27.