Responding to new figures showing the number of pupils in state schools is expected to fall at a faster rate than previously projected, by nearly 400,000 by 2030, amid falling birth rates, Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

“Falling rolls can create a real headache for schools already struggling amid severe financial pressures because the majority of funding is calculated on a per pupil basis.

“It will be vital that the Department for Education protects schools that are particularly affected by this as it has a disproportionate impact on budgets, particularly for small schools.

“There are always significant variations between different parts of the country, individual schools and even year groups and other recent data forecast the number of school places planned for 20026/27 will need to double to meet demand.

“Trends can also change over time. Rather than reducing funding, we would urge the government to continue to invest in schools, allowing them to maintain existing staffing levels. This would help reduce the unsustainable levels of workload which are fuelling a recruitment and retention crisis, also enabling some schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help for pupils who need it.”