NAHT has discussed member concerns over Progress 8 with the secondary accountability team at the DfE.
In terms of Progress 8 2016 we highlighted concerns from some of our members that Progress 8 is not doing what was said it would in terms of being fairer to schools with lower prior attainment/higher levels of disadvantage.
The scatterplot below may help to address these concerns. It is based on published provisional 2016 data. It shows provisional 2016 Progress 8 scores vs provisional 2016 5A*-C including English and Maths (5A*-CEM) . While there is a correlation between Progress 8 and 5A*-CEM, there are some schools (the green dots) that make good progress with their pupils, but don’t have more than 40% 5A*-CEM (the previous floor standard). Likewise, there are some schools (the orange dots) that previously did well on 5A*-CEM, but have not made good progress with their pupils.
In response, the DfE explained that currently schools only have their own data and not the national picture. On 19 January 2017 a SFR and final data will be published which will show the national picture and characteristics data. We will update members about this in the new year once this data has been published.
We also discussed member concerns about the changing point scores allocated to A*-G grades from 2017 when the new 9-1 GCSE grades begin to be awarded and the impact this might have on Attainment 8 and Progress 8. This is an issue for two years while the transition between old and reformed GCSEs takes place. From 2019, all GCSEs will have been reformed and will be graded 1-9, with points awarded on a linear 1-9 scale.
This technical guidance explains why the points have been allocated to the grades as they have. Unreformed GCSEs and all other qualifications will be mapped onto the 1-9 scale from 2017 (with 8.5 being the maximum points available for unreformed GCSEs). Performance table points have been allocated to unreformed GCSEs in 2017 and 2018 in line with Ofqual decisions on setting standards for new GCSEs, so that the same points are awarded to a grade G and a grade 1; a grade C and a grade 4; and a grade A and a grade 7.
To support schools in understanding the impact that this change in methodology may have on Progress 8 and Attainment 8 scores, the DfE will be publishing shadow data in the Spring. This data will show schools what their 2016 data would look like using the 2017 point scores. This school-level data will not be published more widely. This shadow data will demonstrate the change that would occur if all that changes is the point scores. At this time, national data for the attainment 8 score using 2017 point scores will also be made publicly available.
Page Published: 12/12/2016